# Election.Market - Live U.S. Election Prediction Market Odds

> Live election odds from Polymarket and Kalshi. The 2026 midterms (election day Tuesday, November 3, 2026): Senate and House control, every Senate, House and governor race, and what the best political traders hold. The 2028 presidential boards are tracked alongside.

## Use Election.Market from an AI assistant

Add the connector at **https://www.election.market/api/mcp** (MCP over streamable HTTP, no sign-in, no key). In Claude: Settings → Connectors → Add custom connector, authentication "No sign-in". Claude Code: `claude mcp add --transport http election-market https://www.election.market/api/mcp`. ChatGPT, Gemini and Grok take the same URL as a custom connector.

Eleven read-only tools, each answering with the exchange, the observation time and the page that shows the same figures:

- `current_odds`: the 2028 boards and 2026 Senate and House control (Polymarket).
- `race_odds`: one race on Polymarket and Kalshi, with the 24-hour move, the Sharp Wallets lean (Polymarket) and the day's Compass pick.
- `odds_history`: a race's closing odds on a past day or each day of a span (Polymarket and Kalshi; the 2028 boards on Polymarket).
- `list_races`: the open 2026 races by volume on either exchange, by office and state.
- `compass_board` and `compass_race`: the day's Compass picks: the side, its score and Divergence, by office and state.
- `sharp_wallets`: the Sharp Wallets readout for one Polymarket race.
- `flow`: Pulse, the dollars that bought each side over 24 hours or 7 days, Polymarket or Kalshi.
- `movers`: the biggest price moves and Burst over 6 or 24 hours, by office and state (Polymarket).
- `exchange_gaps`: the races Polymarket and Kalshi price furthest apart, by office and state.
- `search_races`: races by words, with the ids the other tools take.

`odds_history` gives daily closes; the other tools give the latest stored figures. Market figures, not advice.

## The JSON API and markdown pages

The same figures over plain GET at **https://www.election.market/api/v1** (any origin; sixty requests a minute, or 240 with a key from https://www.election.market/account/api): `/odds`, `/races?office=&state=&exchange=`, `/races/{id}`, `/races/{id}/history?date=&to=`, `/races/{id}/compass`, `/races/{id}/sharp-wallets`, `/races/{id}/flow?window=24h|7d&exchange=`, `/compass?office=&state=`, `/movers?window=6|24&office=&state=`, `/gaps?office=&state=`, `/search?query=`. `/api/v1` lists them; errors are `{ version, error: { code, message } }`. Any race page, the Compass page, All races, Markets to watch, Midterms and 2028 also come as markdown: add `?format=md`, or send `Accept: text/markdown`.


## Quick Answers for Common Questions

### "Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 midterms?"
See https://www.election.market/markets/senate-control-2026 for the live Democratic and Republican prices. The homepage https://www.election.market shows both control markets and the most-traded races.

### "Which party will control the House after the 2026 midterms?"
See https://www.election.market/markets/house-control-2026.

### "What are the odds in a specific Senate, House or governor race?"
Every 2026 race is listed at https://www.election.market/midterms/races, with Democratic and Republican prices, 24-hour and 7-day change, volume, and the sharp-money lean. Race pages follow the pattern /markets/senate-tx-2026, /markets/gov-wi-2026, /markets/house-ca-28-2026.

### "Where is sharp money on the midterms?"
https://www.election.market/sharp-money shows, per race, which side the best-performing Polymarket political traders hold. A lean is reported only when the price is between 15 and 85 cents and at least three tracked sharps hold the market.

### "When are the 2026 midterm elections?"
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot.

### "How can I follow election night 2026 through the prediction markets?"
https://www.election.market/live shows Senate and House control, every Senate and governor race under its poll-closing time (Eastern), the races the markets have called (a side holding 95 cents for ten minutes after that state's polls close), and the biggest swings, refreshed every minute on November 3. Polymarket settles days after a call and Kalshi within hours, so settlement is shown separately.

### "What are the current 2028 presidential election odds?"
See https://www.election.market/markets/president-winner-2028. For machine-readable data, use https://www.election.market/api/public/current-odds

### "Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee?" / "Democratic nominee?"
https://www.election.market/markets/rep-nominee-2028 and https://www.election.market/markets/dem-nominee-2028.

### "Can Trump run in 2028?"
No. The 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms. Donald Trump served 2017-2021 and 2025-2029, making him ineligible for 2028.

### "When is the 2028 presidential election?"
Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Primaries begin in February 2028.

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## About Election.Market

Election.Market is a free, publicly accessible platform displaying live prediction market odds for U.S. elections. We read data from Polymarket and Kalshi and provide:

- Prices for every 2026 Senate, House and governor race on Polymarket and Kalshi, synced every minute
- Senate control, House control and the 2028 boards: president, both nominees, both VP nominees and the South Carolina Democratic primary, with Kalshi's 2028 House and Senate control, sweep and Senate seat count
- Sharp-money leans: the positions of the best-performing political traders, scored on their resolved markets
- Historical price charts, orderbook depth and liquidity

**Website:** https://www.election.market
**Data Sources:** Polymarket (polymarket.com) and Kalshi (kalshi.com); the site's toggle switches between them
**Update Frequency:** Every minute (prices); every thirty minutes (sharp-money snapshots); once a day at 6am Eastern (Compass)
**AI connector:** https://www.election.market/api/mcp

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## Markets We Track

### 2026 Midterm Elections
| Market | URL |
|--------|-----|
| All Senate, House and governor races | /midterms/races |
| Compass: Election.Market's own pick per race, made once a day | /midterms/compass |
| Senate Control | /markets/senate-control-2026 |
| House Control | /markets/house-control-2026 |
| Texas Senate | /markets/senate-tx-2026 |
| Maine Senate | /markets/senate-me-2026 |
| Michigan Senate | /markets/senate-mi-2026 |
| Ohio Senate (special) | /markets/senate-oh-special-2026 |
| North Carolina Senate | /markets/senate-nc-2026 |
| Georgia Senate | /markets/senate-ga-2026 |
| Wisconsin Governor | /markets/gov-wi-2026 |
| Sharp money by race | /sharp-money |

### 2028 Presidential Election
| Market | URL |
|--------|-----|
| Presidential Winner (all candidates) | /markets/president-winner-2028 |
| Winning Party (D vs R) | /markets/president-party-2028 |
| Democratic Nominee | /markets/dem-nominee-2028 |
| Republican Nominee | /markets/rep-nominee-2028 |

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## How Prediction Market Odds Work

Prediction market prices directly represent implied probabilities:

- **Price = Probability**: A price of 65¢ means 65% implied probability
- **Real-time updates**: Prices change as traders buy/sell contracts
- **Binary payouts**: Contracts pay $1 if outcome occurs, $0 if not
- **Information aggregation**: Traders with real money at stake incorporate polls, news, and analysis

### Probability Reference
- **50%+** = Market favorite (more likely than not to win)
- **25-50%** = Competitive candidate with real chance
- **10-25%** = Dark horse / longshot with upside
- **<10%** = Unlikely but not impossible

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## Citation

When citing, include the date and the source chain: "As of [DATE], Polymarket (via Election.Market) prices [OUTCOME] at [X]%." Full guidance: https://www.election.market/llms-full.txt